Democracy is good news. Preparations for democracy are cumbersome and prerequisites hard to fulfill in many societies. Perhaps Afghanistan was not fully ready for a full-scale true democratic process in the name of elections. Afghan elections are influenced by a variety of intrinsic and extraneous factors. The notion is put on a pedestal and the practice is being watched by the whole world. This is perhaps because other politicians, including one in a superpower country, find their reputation and or destiny in some ways tied to the result of the Afghan presidential elections.

Inside the country, innumerable factors influence decisions by the candidates to think and rethink their positions prior to the Election Day. One important factor here is the fear of defeat. Therefore the pre-election so-called campaign period in Afghanistan reminds one of a casino setting. The players, who are already dealt cards, are unsure of how to play them. That is why the notion of wheeling and dealing has come about. These show not only that politics sometimes and under some conditions, is really a dirty game that has little to do with the high objectives the candidates injure their vocal cords to shout out on their campaign trails, but in actuality it can expose the selfish desire of the politician to achieve full power. In the absence of the possibility to achieve full power, this time in the Afghan scene, some of the presidential candidates are pondering over dealings that might bring them at least partial power. In other words, they want to sell their chips for a cost. Let us look at the following reported attempts at dealings among and between the main players at the Afghan casino of politics:

There was word of middlemen discussing the possibility of a deal between Hamed Karzai and his main rival, Yonus Qanuni. A deal that might lead to securing a cabinet position for Qanuni and his ally Abdullah in the next administration. The price: Qanuni pulling out of the race.

As per Los Angeles Times of September 23, 2004, there was word also of Mohammad Mohaqeq a former minister in Karzai's cabinet and powerful regional leader from central Afghanistan. The deal: Mohaqeq would pull out of the race in favor of Karzai. For this, he would want four cabinet positions for him and his party and a road to Hazarajat. According to a report, the middleman, Ambassador Kahlilzad of the United States to Afghanistan instead proposed to Mohaqeq two cabinet positions, two deputy positions and the road to Hazarajat. But according to Mohaqeq, Karzai did not agree to that deal.

There was an earlier word about a deal among some of the candidates including Qanuni, Sattar Sirat and Mohaqeq. The deal: they would pull out of the campaign and Karzai would agree to give Qanuni his cabinet portfolio of education, Mohaqeq will get a ministry and Sirat would become Chief of the Supreme Court.

Another deal talked about giving Marshal Faheem the position of the head of the Senate when it forms after the parliamentary elections early next year.

There are rumors that another candidate has asked for an exceptionally increased role for women in the new government such as the portfolio of foreign affairs, Afghanistan's ambassadorships to the UN and to Washington, D.C.

Although many candidates still remain undecided because talks on their propositions to Karzai or vice-versa have not been conclusive yet and although many complain of the intervention in the affairs of the election by foreign sources and especially direct involvement of Dr. Khalilzad, the US Ambassador in the form of his direct discussions with candidates, the Afghan election seems to have a fore drawn conclusion. Current trends show that many of the candidates that matter are getting closer to the realization that the edge given to Karzai because of his incumbent position, the support he receives from the US and the familiarity of the constituency with his name make it more likely that he would win the race. Therefore, in order not to come empty handed from the race, they are trying their best to get as much as possible by making pre-election deals with Karzai. After all, a cabinet position and some other promises extracted from Karzai at this time would be much better than getting nothing after the elections. Therefore there is a good possibility that Karzai would be forced to continue to deal with his political opponents and the nation would continue to suffer from a political culture dominated by factional warlords and gunmen who would be equally strong as the central government and would be in a position to dictate their terms about the lives of the ordinary citizens. It is also very possible to envisage a government in Afghanistan led by Karzai, directed by Dr. Khalilzad, and manned by the Northern Alliance trio holding portfolios of foreign affairs and education and leading the Senate. It is also conceivable that Abdul Sattar Sirat would lead the Judiciary in such a government, which will also include Mr. Mohaqeq in a cabinet post. Other presidential candidates would wait in line for the elections for the legislative power of the country that is presently due in April of 2005.

Therefore, the elections which have consumed millions in precious Dollars that could have been used for the betterment of life of the people, and many precious months in time from the life of the Afghan nation would bring a change that would be equal to almost nil. The only thing it would do would be to consolidate the position of those in power helping them do what they have done so far that is also almost equal to nil.

Let us hope that upcoming events would prove this scenario to be wrong and that the result of the elections would bring truly representative individuals to power. Let us also hope that whatever the result, the new government, which will be led by an elected president, would truly become independent of warlords, factional influences, foreign agents, and other regional forces and take up the task of rebuilding of a devastated land seriously. After all, this president would have cost the nation actual dollars in the amount of millions, and thousands upon thousands of hours of work lost in the preparation and implementation of the election. And let at this casino, the real winner be the nation, not the stake and the chip holders who are so ready to trade them for acquisition of personal power. 9/25/04