Truth is a relative concept. It has many faces. Based on different people's perceptions, truth can have a variety of definitions. Fact, reality, and certainty would be the closest definitions. But fact is not always the truth because it is subject to change on the axis of time and space. Reality too, is dependable on conditions influencing perception and certainty is a slave to circumstance. So what is the truth? To politicians, truth is any favorable statement matching their ambitions for power. To rich, truth is monetary gain and to the poor truth is deprivation and suffering.

World public is a strangely forgiving body. It forgives lies by politicians on the grounds that they are among the tools of their profession. It forgives the fighting military, either side, for lying on the grounds that in war you resort to anything to further your objective. It, however, does not forgive the weak, the downtrodden and the oppressed.

Let us analyze the implications in contemporary Afghan social and political arena. Some of the facts are:

There are some twenty thousand US troops in Afghanistan. NATO has recently agreed to increase its forces from 6,500 to about 10,000 in Afghanistan. There are about another 11,000 International Security Assistance Forces committed to Afghanistan under the UN system. Furthermore there is a national army claimed to consist of 10,000 troops. President Karzai has announced another 20,000 national police force in the country.

Considering the above the optimistic statements by Karzai, his spokesperson Mr. Lodin and or Sayed Jawad his ambassador to Washington, downplaying security problems in the country would seem a realistic assessment. But there are also other facts:

Taleban, contrary to the claim made by the government are not a diminishing force, but gaining strength and becoming bolder everyday. They, together with other extremist forces in the country, have attacked and inflicted casualties on foreign aid workers, peacekeeping forces and troops. They have succeeded in kidnapping government officials, killing registered voters and the registrars including women folk.

Considering the above, security in the country is indeed worth deep concern and there is a great need for further troops to make sure that the upcoming elections are safe, secure and fair. A conservative estimate suggested the need for at least 30,000 troops of the national army and an additional 30,000 policemen to provide security during the Afghan presidential and parliamentary elections.

Other facts state that for the elections to be fair a minimum of 10,000,000 people, including women needed to be registered. So far, a little over 5,000,000 have been registered. A positive development in this regard is the fact that more than thirty percent of the registered voters are women. Therefore the reality of the situations is that the transitional government has only achieved a little over fifty percent of its goal regarding voter registration. The head of the government had suggested in many of his statements that he would be happy with a figure for registered voters to be around 6,000,000.

The facts state that the government of President Karzai postponed elections scheduled for June because of slow voter registration and other logistic issues. The second deadline for the elections, namely September was chosen. Conclusion of Afghan elections just prior to the US elections in November, would give President Bush a good push, as he would tie up any success in Afghanistan with the success of his administrations policies including military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq as testimony for his correct decision on going to war. The facts suggest now that there might be the need for another delay in elections based on the aforementioned underachievement of voter registration goals, security problems and logistical issues. Again facts are that the government assisted by the United Nations needed 101 million Dollars to finance the elections, but it has received so far only 18.8 million in donations.

The reality therefore may be frightening to Karzai and his international supporters because the problems facing him are enormous and the element of time unforgiving. The law says for the elections to take place and in order for the candidates to prepare, there must be a determination of the date ninety days before the elections. If elections were to take place in September then the deadline is already over.

A greater picture of the whole issue with or without the above facts suggest that no matter when the elections are held, Karzai will have a greater chance to win mainly because of the strong international support he enjoys and because he is more likely to use his incumbent position to help him in the elections. Other candidates, because of the little exposure they get in the media and because of lack of enormous amounts of money to spend on their campaigns may lag behind and remain unknown to the voting public.

Other realities point to the issue of extremely high levels of illiteracy in the country in general and among the women folk in particular. Although there are arguments against the assumption that democracy is only compatible with the highest level of literacy in the society, it is hard to believe that all of the more than five million voters in Afghanistan would fully appreciate and or understand the principles of democracy and therefore there is a danger that they may remain open to influences from many corners including the religious establishment, the extremist parties and the enemies of Afghanistan.

But if elections were postponed to October or December or even to the next year when preparations would have been fully taken, the danger of attrition among the registered voters would create an additional problem. Population in Afghanistan is not fully settled and there is great movement of population both within the country and from abroad in the form of returning refugees. Keeping track of registration documents would be one problem while loss of enthusiasm among the registered voters with the lapse of time would be another difficulty to overcome. Afghanistan's harsh geography when many parts of the country become inaccessible in winter due to snow would remain another problem to consider.

So looking at the above facts and truths, Mr. Karzai's recent optimistic speeches to NATO and other agencies in Europe and his associates' interviews elsewhere would only seem like the utterances of a politician and would seem also to be far from truth. 7/4/04