One of the basic questions to be asked about Afghanistan's neighbor to the east and south, namely Pakistan, is its form of government. General Parwaiz Musharraf, who took over the power in a bloodless coup from Nawaz Sharif, the elected prime minister of Pakistan and leader of the Muslim League party, promised the world that he was truly trying to let the country return to civil democratic rule in due time. In that effort, one the first things he did was to arrange for himself to be chosen as the president of Pakistan. Then he allowed, and his military helped, holding of elections for the national and provincial assemblies early this month. This he let be carried out so that the world would believe that democracy is returning to Pakistan. However, Pakistani democracy is a democracy of sorts. In this democracy the president, himself a general, proclaimed for himself the right to sack any prime minister or government, he would find ineffective in ruling the country. Although the power of the military could never be ignored in Pakistan and although in the short life of the country after partition, more than fifty percent of the time the country has been by the military, the present arrangement by General Musharraf to hold firm to absolute power, yet to claim democratic conduct, is unique. Apparently at this juncture of time, when the US is busy fighting remnants of Al-Qaeda and Taleban in neighboring Afghanistan, Pakistan's policy of a lukewarm democracy has not been analyzed enough by the world media. In the US fight against terrorism and Al-Qaeda, Pakistan, an ally, would be greatly helpful.

On the other hand, elections in Pakistan showed that anti-US and pro-Taleban parties scored high. The union of six religious parties won overwhelmingly the majority of seats in the provincial assemblies of two of Pakistan's four provinces. The two provinces are direct neighbors of Afghanistan. The union also won twenty percent of seats of the national assembly. If winning in elections is any indication of the will of the nation, it would seem that the religious parties and their leaders have done exceptionally well in reaching their constituencies and winning them over into reintroduction of religion as the principle part of governance in Pakistan. This is also a blow to the trends for secular system in Pakistan favored by some major political parties such as the People's Party and the Muslim League. Furthermore this success has been scored in areas very close to Afghanistan and inevitably will have a big influence in affairs in this country especially at this time that elimination of the remnants of Taleban and Al-Qaeda is in sight.

Yet there is another aspect to the theme of elections in Pakistan. The Pushtoons of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), true sisters and brothers of the Pushtoons in Afghanistan, suffered a set back mainly because of the diversity of their goals and their traditional divisiveness. Famous among the Pashtoon nationalist parties are the Awami National Party, Pukhtoonkhwa Qaumi Party, Pukhtoonkhwa Mili Awami Party and National Awami Party Pakistan. As a result of poor performance in the recent elections these parties have started contacting each other for the purpose of establishing a more powerful alliance. Although the needs for improvement of all aspects of civil life in Pushtoon areas is highest, and political nuclei for nationalistic parties were established in the region prior to the recent religious movement resurgences, the nationalistic parties lagged far behind in the last elections. And this is in the face of the fact that Pushtoon parties and their membership are highly religious in their beliefs.

Whether the unity the Pushtoon parties seek could be achieved, in itself, is a question the answer to which would be found in the structure of the new administration that may come up as a result of the elections. But there is no denying the fact that the person of General Musharraf and his military establishment plus the fact that he has assigned huge powers to himself such as the right to dismiss the head of the civil government, may cast some degree of a shadow over the possibility of democracy returning in full to Pakistan.

Afghanistan, therefore, is highly interested in the developments in its neighbor to the east in political developments regarding its government. For one thing, Afghanistan relies on its imports mostly via the port of Karachi which is about 700 miles shorter than the Iranian ports. Other reasons include the ongoing war against Taleban and Al-Qaeda by the United States . The proximity of Afghan areas of former Taleban influence and the region of the so called independent tribes on the edges of Afghanistan borders in Pakistan has gained importance also in the ongoing fight against terrorism. Furthermore, religious extremism on either side of the borders between Afghanistan and Pakistan echo strongly to the other side. Especially at this juncture that the Afghans are working toward drafting of a new constitution to lead their lives into a future of peace, freedom and tranquility.

Only the future would tell whether this rare commodity, democracy, could be established and maintained in Pakistan and whether religious extremism could or could not affect civil lives and institutions in Pakistan and how would all this influence social, economic and political developments in the land of the Afghans. 10/20/02