The Pakistan Observer carried a report on March 31, 2001, on the likelihood of announcement by the former Afghan king, Mohammad Zahir Shah of an interim government in exile. The report was rather vaguely quoting an Afghan news service with offices both in Afghanistan and Peshawar. According to the report a meeting on April 18, 2001, in Geneva Switzerland will bring together leaders of three movements all aspiring to the a traditional Afghan assembly called Loya Jirga as the solution to the Afghan problem. The three movements have become known as the Rome, Cyprus and Lone initiatives respectively. This column has dealt in some detail about the Rome and Cyprus initiatives in its past analyses. The Lone Loya Jirga initiative seems to be centered in Pakistan and pressed for by a number of local tribal chieftains and former military officers. Of interest is the fact that while all three movements believe that a Loya Jirga is the solution to the Afghan problem, they have not been able yet to bring about a united front for their objective. The Rome initiative does have the support of the West. It is rumored that the United States has committed itself to financial support to the Rome process. There are a number of American personalities and politicians that favor the Rome initiative because of its moderate nature and an affinity to secularism. The Cyprus movement calls itself supporter of an Islamic government for Afghanistan and is supported by Iran and possibly covertly by the Islamic Party of Afghanistan which is headed by Gulbuddin Hikmatyar, father-in-law of Homayoon Jarir the leader of the Cyprus movement. The Lone Loya Jirga initiative has emanated mostly because of the delays and the slow movement of the Rome process. This initiative does feel the urgency of the need to do something for the delivery of Afghanistan from its present miserable condition.

The Geneva meeting has been arranged rather wisely by the Rome movement in order to ascertain possibility of a compromised stand regarding the convening of the Loya Jirga. While it all seems as logical steps in the right direction, the basic question remains that even if the three Loya Jirga movements could reach a consensus what would be the next step? This question is particularly important as the Taleban government that is in control of more than 90 percent of Afghanistan is an armed administration in place. It has repeatedly in the past rejected the idea of any Loya Jirga initiative or the return of the former king to the center of the Afghan political arena. On the other hand, it is also a fact that the Northern Alliance that is in opposition to Taleban has showed interest in the Rome process. The French authorities as well as officials of the European Union warmly received Ahmad Shah Masood one of the leaders of the Northern Alliance who is currently on a tour of Western Europe. Some observers speculate that an overt or covert contact between him and the Rome process would have been a political option.

But the report of the possibility of an interim government in exile by Rome at this stage seems rather premature. It is true that Taleban have lost a lot of their standing even among groups that considered themselves their sympathizers inside and outside Afghanistan. This has been specially so because of their irrational, compulsive decision and the actual carrying out of the destruction of Afghanistan's cultural heritage. This low level in popularity of the group makes it vulnerable to political exploitation and perhaps the former king sees a chance there. It is also true that the American new administration has announced that Taleban movement has proven to be incapable to govern the country. But are these enough justification for a movement that has for many years now claimed that it works for the ideal of respecting the wishes of the nation through a Loya Jirga, to jump ahead and put an interim cabinet in place even before the convening of the Loya Jirga? Is this prudent? Or should the movement first work out its differences with the other two similar movements for the convening of the Loya Jirga and then consider a government? Another issue worth consideration would be the question of how would a government of civilians established thousands of miles away in the heart of Europe would be effective in the running of affairs of Afghanistan?

If the interim government arrangements are for the purposes of coordination with international efforts for peace in Afghanistan as a consultative group, that is something the Rome initiative could do by itself without going through the trouble of forming of a government.

The former king, for the first time in many years took a stand recently in condemning Taleban for the destruction of Afghanistan's historical relics and blaming Pakistan for imposing the group on the Afghan nation. But that was a stand also taken by majority of the Afghans the world over. This does not make the king the champion. What would make him a champion would be the actual delivery of Afghanistan by prudent political action in cooperation with the United Nations? To do so requires a lot of preparation and contacts and work with national and international groups and the United Nations system. It is to be realized that with establishing of a government in exile, Taleban will not only not transfer their power to it but would adamantly embark on drastic action that would harm the nation further. Therefore too, measured political action is recommended rather than rushing into direct conflict before paving of the grounds. The report said that one of the reasons for the establishment of a government led by Zahir Shah was that such a government would embark upon writing of a constitution for Afghanistan and conducting of elections. Both of these issues fall into the category of issues that directly concern the nation and its right to participation. Evidently, at this time the nation cannot be consulted freely or directly and therefore would not be able to participate in the drafting and passing of the constitution. It will not be able to have its say in the process of election either.

But what is expected of the plans for the Geneva negotiations is reaching of an agreement on the process of the Loya Jirga itself. Its venue, its methods of convening, and a guarantee for the implementation of its decisions from all sides involved and especially the major military power in the country namely the Taleban need to be decided upon first and foremost. A sign of progress therefore of the process of Loya Jirga would be an agreement among the three movements to unite their efforts. This in itself, considering the difference in ideology between the Rome and Cyprus initiatives seems to be difficult to achieve. 04/06/01