As many as one million Afghans could die of starvation this winter unless the international community quickly provides aid to cope with the country's worst drought in decades, World Food Program officials said Friday.

Continued war in the North and the northeast of the country has forced another 28,000 people to seek refuge in Pakistan.

Diseases of infectious and noninfectious nature as well as food deficiency syndromes have coupled up with the fiercest droughts in 30 years to claim more human and animal lives in Afghanistan. Infant mortality rate in Afghanistan is among the highest in the world.

A political solution is as illusive today as it was a decade ago. There is news of failure after failure of efforts to bring peace to this poor country. Want has turned many among the otherwise proud Afghan nation to become beggars. A group in power over most of the country is impotent to bring the least of social services to the needy. It has, like its predecessor moves fallen in love with the power and thus clings to it. There is little hope in sight.

A political drive, namely a call for the convening of the Loya Jirga or the Grand National assembly as one of the main mechanisms to involving the people in the determination of their destiny has made no significant headway. On the contrary the drive is now facing division that is introduced to it by a variety of groups. First there was, and it seems still is, the former king who supported by a select group advanced the idea of an emergency Loya Jirga as the only solution to the Afghan problem. The select group was hand picked by the king and thus it still requires some degree of national legitimacy. However, a renegade member of the Islamic Party, namely Homayoun Jarir, son-in-law of Gulbuddin Hikmatyar began another move for the same purpose. That move is now known as the Cyprus initiative. The Cyprus initiative has been an effort to re-involve the so-called Mujahiddin in the political solution of the Afghan issue. It is also an attempt to secure some level of power for the mujahiddin groupings in a future government. This is because the Afghan nation rightly considers the Mujahiddin groupings as the source of the continuation of factional war in their country and thus would hesitate to agree to any involvement by them in Afghan politics. The nation believes that they were given the chance but failed to accomplish anything. Instead they caused further suffering of the people and brought about more death and devastation. While the Cyprus initiative is alive and kicking and while it has not been able to score any significant success either, the Rome initiative too has reportedly faced problems. For one thing it still has to get the Taleban interested in the idea. But the move has been delayed time and again for reasons that have not been discussed with the Afghan or international media. Because of these delays and tactics of secrecy, many Afghans have lost interest in the movement already. Yet because of lack of media exposure of the policies of the movement many speculations are now circulating about it. When facts are hidden from the people they resort to speculations.

It is rumored that the Rome initiative is facing antagonism from inside. Fingers point at the person of the king's son-in-law, Abdul Wali. Former General Abdul Wali was the strongman of the monarchy. At a young age he climbed the ladder of military promotions mainly because he was the king's son-in-law as well as his cousin. His military carrier has been bland. Never did he achieve beyond ordinary in the Afghan army. Nor did he score any political success. Living under the shadow of his monarch father-in-law, he was like a baby born with a gold spoon in his mouth. While the king was away in Italy, Abdul Wali, Chief of the Army's Central Garrison and overall military boss, lost the army to his cousin Mohammad Daoud who staged an armed coup from under his nose. After a brief imprisonment in Afghanistan, Mohammad Daoud allowed him to travel abroad for medical treatment of a cancerous tumor. He has been living in Rome with his father-in-law for the past more than twenty years. It would seem that the memory of power has been with him all the time. When the aging king expressed his idea of convening of a Loya Jirga he said he did not want any position for himself in a future government in Afghanistan. Many and perhaps his son-in-law thought that the king would want him to lead a government that may be proposed by the Loya Jirga. However, it was obvious that General Abdul Wali was not popular with the Afghan nation. But it would seem that the new courtiers are not particularly to Abdul Wali's liking. The king's own sons, political failures, are out of the political scene. For some time and even today the former king's family is grooming one of its very young members Mustafa, the king's grandson, for leadership. Mustafa is not known to the nation. He does not have the experience, or the knowledge of real Afghanistan. People are speculating that all of this has made Abdul Wali more hopeful for assuming a role of political leadership. Thus not unlike the renegade son-in-law of Hikmatyar, Abdul Wali has distanced himself somewhat from the planned endeavors of the group which has been working for the original Rome initiative. He was conspicuously absent from the Rome meeting that was led by the former king last year. He did not attend the recent Bonn meeting either. Rumors have it that he has instead hopes of working in a Taleban leadership position. While this seems unlikely the same circles speculate that Pakistan may have offered him a role in Taleban administration. He himself still seems committed to the convening of a Loya Jirga. Apparently his Loya Jirga is different from the original proposal and that of the Cyprus initiative. It may be that all of these speculations are baseless in which case it is the duty of General Abdul Wali to come out and express his ideas on the subject of finding of a political solution to the Afghan issue. Otherwise, at this time that the drought, disease and war have profoundly affected the Afghan nation, no one should be thinking about personal gains or acquisition of power.

Presently the population of Afghanistan is estimated at about twenty million. A World Food Program estimate says that the drought has severely hit as many as 4 million Afghans, and affected as many as 12 million. This is roughly more than half of the population of the country that are affected in the South, west and central Afghanistan. The other half living in the North and east are no better. War and disease are claiming innocent lives every day. Internal displacement and refuge into Pakistan have unfortunately not only not ended but has continued due to war and hunger. This is a time that Afghans must unite for saving Afghanistan. It is no time for division. It certainly is not the time of introducing directly or indirectly another Loya Jirga as Version III. 10/27/2000

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